SHA TIN PREVIEW

R4 – Longines Hong Kong Vase (G1) (Turf) 2400M

Shahryar is a late withdrawal but still leaves Japan accounting for a third of the field, including the much touted Lebensstil, a last start winner at Nakayama, where he clearly appreciated the step up to 2200M. With 6 career starts – 3 wins and 3 placings – the Real Steel colt has a progressive profile. João Moreira takes the reins but my vote goes to market rival, WARM HEART for Ballydoyle. A model of consistency, she boasts five victories and two placings from 9 starts. The Galileo filly began her campaign in April where she finished runner-up in a Leopardstown maiden. A swift ascent followed – returning to the premier track for her breakthrough, a Listed win at Newbury and Group 2 success at Royal Ascot. In Autumn she went travelling – victory at Parislongchamp in the Prix Vermeille (her first Group 1) preceded a narrow defeat in the Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita. That last run, back down in trip, might have been against her and returning to the Vase distance can prove key. Ryan Moore was seemingly determined to partner her, and in doing so, down to his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months. João Moreira also rates his charge highly, but Lebensstil concedes 4Ib to the selection, which may prove decisive. We also have Geraldina and Zeffiro representing Japan, with the latter making most appeal – he won the Copa Republica Argentina (Grade 2) last month – no ‘Magic Man’ this time, but Damian Lane takes over, winner of the 2022 renewal aboard Win Marilyn. You rule out Andre Fabre at your peril, the ‘master trainer’ represented by Junko, bids for compensation following the stables’ near miss in 2022 with Botanik. The home team look tested, but Senor Toba, Five G Patch and La City Blanche will, I’m sure, give a good account.

R5 – Longines Hong Kong Sprint (G1) (Turf) 1200M

This has been a favourable Group 1 for the home defense but the top two, LUCKY SWEYNESSE and Wellington come into the race looking slightly vulnerable. The former can be excused a ‘shock’ defeat at the hands of Victor The Winner in the Chief Executive’s Cup – the ground softer than ideal and Zac Purton probably mindful of loftier targets to come – he also failed to justify favouritism in the Premier Bowl a month later, but gained revenge on VTW in the Jockey Club Sprint and crossed the line a reasonably cosy winner. I don’t think he’s quite there yet this season, but on ratings doesn’t need to be. His customary mediocre start will have Purton bustling him along, but from gate 5 he should find a decent spot under the champion jockey. Aesop’s Fables, Lucky With You, Wellington and Victor The Winner are drawn inside and I’d expect the first two will drop back, leaving the selection tracking James McDonald on Victor The Winner, with Wellington on the rail. The latter made an excellent debut for Jamie Richards, following the retirement of Richard Gibson, and has to be respected as the reigning champion. But, he’s finished behind Lucky Sweynesse on their last five encounters, and the first time blinkers an unknown quantity. European challengers have failed to lift this since 2002, when the race became a G1, and it’s the turn of Highfield Princess and Aesop’s Fables to try for Britain and Ireland respectively. The former, winner of the Prix de L’Abbaye de Longchamp on her latest start, tackles a bend for the first time since finishing fourth to Caravel in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Keeneland in 2022. Returning to 1200M shouldn’t inconvenience but gate 9 is awkward, and despite finishing behind her in all three starts this campaign, I wouldn’t rule out AESOP’S FABLES (Each Way) to go close. If anyone can buck a 20 year trend it’s Aidan O’Brien and his last two runs, in the Prix de L’Abbaye and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, have arguably been career best performances. I think he wants this trip and proved at Santa Anita that fast ground holds no fears. Mad Cool is an improving Japanese raider, but might come up short – and the rest of the home team – Lucky With You, Sight Success and Duke Wai – are 6, 7 and 8YO respectively. Aesop’s Fables is a 3YO, a G2 winner as a juvenile and must have a chance if the big guns misfire.

R7 – Longines Hong Kong Mile (Group 1) (Turf) 1600M

This sees the eagerly anticipated return of Golden Sixty, bidding to land his third Hong Kong Mile this weekend under regular partner, Vincent Ho. In previous renewals the son of Medaglia d’Oro has arrived fresh from victory in the Jockey Club Mile (Group 2) in November. This time, with connection’s looking to Sunday’s Group 1 to kick off the campaign, he must overcome a 224 day absence to triumph. There were no signs of waning powers last season, but having turned eight this summer, he could be vulnerable to younger rivals. A winning reappearance would not surprise but the vote goes to BEAUTY ETERNAL under Zac Purton. A beaten favourite in the Sha Tin Trophy on his seasonal return, the son of Starspangledbanner restored order with victory in the following month’s, Jockey Club Mile, albeit by the minimum of margins from Beauty Joy. The runner-up bids for revenge but lacks the progressive profile of the winner, who was probably idling in front and trained by the legendary, John Size. The reigning champion, California Spangle, is respected under Christophe Soumillon but was disappointing in the Jockey Club Mile and it’s possible he simply isn’t the force of old. Japan send five with Serifos and hat-trick seeking, Namur the pick of the crop. The latter won the Mile Championship at Kyoto, having previously landed the Fuji Stakes in Tokyo under João Moreira. The ‘Magic Man’ keeps faith with Soul Rush, runner-up to Namur last month leaving William Buick with an interesting ride on the latter for Tomokazu Takano.

R8 – Longines Hong Kong Cup (Group 1) (Turf) 2000M

Eleven line up for the final Group 1 with Romantic Warrior aiming for back to back success under James McDonald. Fresh from his Cox Plate victory, the Danny Shum 5YO is the one to beat but I’ll look to HORIZON DORE for France. Expertly campaigned by former jockey, Patrice Cottier, the son of Dabirsim has won four times this year, including the Prix Eugene Adam at Saint-Cloud in July, after which Pauline Chehboub/Gousserie Racing had the prescience to nominate the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October as a likely target. A commendable third on unsuitably deep ground vindicated their decision and connections are confident ahead of Sunday, where victory would snap a nine year wait for French Group 1 glory at Sha Tin’s international meeting. Mickael Barzalona retains the ride, and contrary to some opinion, barrier 1 looks ideal – in an admittedly smaller field, the 3YO won from the rail draw in the Prix Ridgway at Parislongchamp in June. In a fascinating renewal, chances can also be given to the Aidan O’Brien trained, Luxembourg while Japan send three, headed by last year’s runner-up, Prognosis and Rousham Park. The former would have finished closer with a clear passage and ran well latest behind Equinox in The Tenno Sho at this trip. He has solid claims but requires luck, given his run style and Rousham Park, chasing a four-timer, may emerge as a bigger danger under Damian Lane.